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Update investment planning and decision-making frameworks to improve options identification, scenario analysis and test deliverability of projects

In the next round of the refresh of business case guidelines, the following should be considered:

    a.

    Formally incorporate scenario planning into investment decision making that extends beyond the standard sensitivity analysis currently used in business case development.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    b.

    Explore the use of Real Options Analysis (ROA) to support greater flexibility to deal with uncertainty, such as high impact and low frequency events.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    c.

    Strengthen upfront thinking, sound problem definition and benefits realisation testing to ensure a range of compelling investment options that lead to intended benefits.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    d.

    Require early engagement with industry on commercial viability and program deliverability (including market sounding) to inform options.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    e.

    Ensure alignment of investment proposals with government strategies and outcomes in a measurable and evidence-based manner.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    f.

    Review the methodology for estimating the appropriate discount rate to reflect current conditions.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority

    g.

    Periodically review assumptions underpinning infrastructure planning and delivery, including accounting for uncertainties and disruptive events.

    Sector:Multiple
    Location:Statewide
    Lead agency:Treasury, Infrastructure NSW
    Implementation timeframe:Immediate Priority